Biden Administration Navigates Venezuela’s Political Crisis While Avoiding Past U.S. Missteps

The Biden administration is carefully handling the volatile situation in Venezuela, aiming to unseat President Nicolás Maduro while steering clear of past U.S. intervention missteps in Latin America. Following a fraud-tainted election on July 28, both Maduro and opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia declared themselves winners.

Although the U.S. supports González, based on independent polls showing his lead, it has stopped short of officially recognizing him as president-elect. This measured stance is designed to prevent the complications that arose from the more forceful approach taken by the Trump administration.

The Trump administration, in an attempt to oust Maduro, imposed sanctions

and supported opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who led a government-in-exile following an attempted coup in 2019. However, despite these efforts, Maduro remained in power, solidifying his rule through crackdowns on dissent and control over Venezuelan institutions.

The Biden administration hopes to pursue a different strategy, leveraging the influence of Latin American nations like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, who have so far been reluctant to pressure Maduro despite calling for electoral transparency.

Latin American leaders, including Brazil’s Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, have encouraged Maduro to release the full election results but have not declared him the loser.

The Organization of American States also failed to garner significant regional support for condemning Maduro’s actions. Meanwhile, the U.S. has refrained from fully endorsing González as president-elect, opting instead to increase diplomatic pressure while avoiding escalating tensions.

Maduro’s grip on power has triggered political and economic turmoil in Venezuela, leading to deadly protests and widespread arrests. The country, once South America’s wealthiest, has seen millions flee as refugees, contributing to heated immigration debates in the U.S.

Despite the lack of formal recognition of González’s win, U.S. officials consider their declaration of Maduro’s loss a significant diplomatic move. Maduro, however, remains defiant, having previously warned of civil conflict if he were not declared the winner.

The Biden administration’s approach contrasts with the previous U.S. administration by focusing on incentives rather than sanctions to persuade Maduro to step down. Maduro had initially agreed to hold elections after negotiations involving regional officials and Qatar, an unusual mediator.

The U.S. has offered incentives such as lifting criminal indictments and safe passage to a third country, although Maduro remains concerned about possible investigations by the International Criminal Court for human rights violations.

As the situation develops, U.S. officials are rethinking their strategy, mindful of the need to maintain support from Latin American allies. Restoring tougher sanctions could push Maduro further away from negotiations while straining relations with regional powers like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

These nations are key to any diplomatic solution, but they are also cautious about being seen as aligning too closely with U.S. policy. Meanwhile, Panama’s president offered to facilitate Maduro’s safe exit from Venezuela, but Maduro rejected the idea, dismissing it as a plot by the U.S. to undermine his regime.