Devendra Kumar
Turkey’s local elections are set to take place, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking to reclaim control of key cities, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. Five years ago, Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, lost control of these urban areas to the opposition. The 70-year-old Erdogan has set his sights on reclaiming Istanbul, where he was born and raised, and a strong showing for the AKP would likely harden his resolve to introduce a new constitution that reflects his conservative values and allows him to rule beyond 2028.
The opposition, demoralized after last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, is looking to keep Istanbul and Ankara to boost morale and remobilize supporters. The opposition is fielding a candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, who is running without the support of some parties that helped him win in 2019. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party and the nationalist IYI Party are fielding their own candidates, which could siphon away votes from Imamoglu.
Turnout is traditionally high in Turkey, but this time the vote comes against the backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis. Observers say disillusioned opposition supporters might opt to stay home, doubting its ability to change things. Meanwhile, governing party supporters might not go to the polls in protest against the economic downturn.
Polls have pointed to a close race between Istanbul’s incumbent mayor, Imamoglu, and AKP candidate Murat Kurum. The outcome of the election will have significant consequences for Erdogan’s legacy. If Imamoglu wins, he will be well-placed to unify the fractious opposition and launch a bid for the presidency in 2028. However, losing Istanbul would deal a significant blow to both Imamoglu and the opposition.
In Ankara, incumbent mayor Mansur Yavas is expected to retain his post, according to opinion polls. Meanwhile, a new religious-conservative party, the New Welfare Party, is appealing to voters who have been disillusioned with Erdogan’s handling of the economy and is expected to draw some votes away from his candidates.
Erdogan has been advocating a new constitution that would put family values at the forefront, and a strong showing could allow him to woo some conservative, nationalist or Islamic legislators from the opposition camp for a needed two-thirds majority. Berk Esen, an associate professor of political sciences at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, said Erdogan is pushing for a new constitution “more conservative than the current version” in order to expand and define his legacy. This would be a big opportunity for Erdogan to leave his political imprint, Esen said.
The local elections are a critical test for Erdogan’s ruling party, and the outcome will shape his legacy forever. Erdogan’s legacy has already been marked by his handling of the economy and his authoritarian rule, and the outcome of the elections will determine whether he is able to cement his power and influence in Turkey for years to come.