Devendra Kumar
Iran is preparing for a parliamentary election on March 1st, a crucial test of the clerical establishment’s popularity amidst growing discontent over economic, political, and social pressures. The ruling clerics are striving to secure a high turnout to reinforce their legitimacy, which has been eroded by months of mass protests triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
The election process is marked by a record number of candidates, with over 15,000 hopefuls for the 290-strong parliament surviving scrutiny by the Guardian Council, a hardline body of clerics and jurists. The council has qualified 144 clerics out of 510 hopefuls for the Assembly of Experts vote, while a current member of the elite body, former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, was barred from entering the race.
The election is taking place without a clear precedent of disciplined party membership or detailed party platforms, as politics is characterized by factional lines. Reformists, who were excluded from the country’s political mainstream after disputing the re-election of a hardline president in 2009, have declined to back any list of candidates in the contest for the parliament. Pro-reform candidates faced mass disqualification in the 2020 parliamentary vote.
Hardline groups are expected to maintain their dominance in parliament, with the Coalition of Islamic Revolution Forces, the largest hardline group, likely to maintain its prominence. The Unity Council, a conservative group, and the Voice of the National coalition, a moderate group, are also expected to play a significant role.
Iran’s electoral process has largely manual voting stations, with partial results expected soon, and the final result may not be announced for three days. The Iranian constitution mandates five reserved seats in parliament for religious minorities, although the election is not expected to determine policy in areas such as foreign affairs and the nuclear agenda, which are determined by Iran’s supreme leader.
Despite the significance of the election, it is not expected to bring significant change to Iran’s leadership or policy direction. Instead, the outcome will provide a window into the Iranian people’s psyche, with the result likely to be a test of the clerical establishment’s ability to maintain its grip on power.