Devendra Kumar
Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House has current and former aides, diplomats, and officials worried about the impact on US foreign policy. If Trump wins the presidency again, he is likely to install loyalists in key positions at the Pentagon, State Department, and CIA, allowing him to enact his isolationist policies with more freedom than during his first term. Trump struggled to impose his vision on the national security establishment during his first presidency, often facing resistance from top officials who disagreed with his impulsive and erratic decisions.
Trump’s loyalists, who have significant foreign policy experience and personal trust with the former president, will push for a more isolationist approach to US foreign policy. This could include cutting defence aid to Europe, further shrinking economic ties with China, and imposing trade tariffs on NATO countries that do not meet their defence spending commitments. Trump’s former national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, believes that imposing trade tariffs on NATO countries would be a likely policy during a second term.
Trump’s opponents fear that his return to power will lead to a weakening of the US system of checks and balances, allowing him to pursue political enemies and dismantle elements of the bureaucracy. This “doomsday option” is a hypothetical scenario in which Trump uses his power to undermine the US government and its institutions.
Trump’s potential appointments to key positions will be based primarily on loyalty to him, rather than competence or experience. His former defence secretary, Mark Esper, recalled Trump’s frustration when top officials raised objections to his proposals, including a suggestion to launch missile strikes on drug cartels in Mexico.
The possibility of a Trump presidency has foreign capitals scrambling for information on his potential policies. European diplomats are worried about Trump’s commitment to defending NATO allies and providing aid to Ukraine. Some diplomats have been in contact with Trump’s aides, seeking to better understand his approach to foreign policy, while others have outlined a possible “doomsday option” in diplomatic cables to their home capitals.
Trump’s foreign policy during a second term will likely be shaped by his loyalists, who are unlikely to confront him. Michael Mulroy, Trump’s former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East, believes that Trump will appoint individuals who subscribe to his isolationist brand of foreign policy and are loyal to him.
The Trump administration plans to root out perceived “rogue” actors at lower levels of the national security community, which would have little precedent in the United States. Trump has also pledged to reinstate an executive order to allow him to more easily dismiss civil servants and establish a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” to investigate “Deep State” abuses of power.
A Trump presidency would likely bring a more isolationist approach to US foreign policy, with a focus on domestic interests and a weakening of international alliances. This would have significant implications for global politics, economic relationships, and international security.