Devendra Kumar
Rishi Sunak’s emergency Rwanda legislation has been given a bleak assessment by the UK government, with Attorney General Victoria Prentis warned that there is only a “50 per cent at best” chance of successfully getting removal flights off the ground next year. The legislation’s success is jeopardized by the risk of the European Court of Human Rights blocking planes to Kigali, according to an official legal assessment. This development is likely to add to the British Prime Minister’s troubles in convincing his divided Tory MPs to support his new Bill, which aims to revive the stalled £290 million policy.
The assessment is said to have been signed off by top lawyer Sir James Eadie, who advocated for the UK Home Office in the Supreme Court case. However, a UK government official refused to comment on the advice, stating that it would be “very wrong” for anyone to do so. Instead, the official asserted that ministers are reassured that the Bill goes as far as it can within international law and ensures that flights to Rwanda can take off next year.
Meanwhile, Robert Jenrick, the former UK immigration minister who resigned over the legislation, has publicly expressed his doubts about the scheme’s effectiveness. In an article for the Telegraph, Jenrick argued that the policy will fail to remove small boat arrivals swiftly and suggested that Britain should leave international treaties such as the European Convention on Human Rights. This stance has been interpreted as a setting out of his stall for a future leadership contest.
The Times’ report states that asylum seekers will be able to lodge legal challenges against their deportation based on individual circumstances, despite Sunak’s Bill. This has raised concerns among moderate Tories who are worried about the potential consequences of the European Convention on Human Rights. Some on the right, however, want to go further and disapply the convention entirely.
As the clock ticks down to the crunch vote on Tuesday, Sunak is fighting to convince his MPs to back his Bill. However, the lack of confidence in the legislation’s chances of success is likely to make it an even harder sell. The British Prime Minister is also facing criticism from all sides over the policy’s costs, with reports emerging that the UK has paid an additional £100 million on top of the £140 million already paid to Kigali. If the Bill fails to pass, it could plunge Sunak’s leadership into a fresh crisis.